Steve Flink, Austrialian Open 2008

Overview

The 2008 Australian Open was a great tournament from beginning to end. There were some gripping clashes from the outset. The tennis was first class as the players produced high level stuff all through the fortnight on the new Plexicushion courts. All in all, we could hardly have asked for more from the first major of the new season.
Let’s look at what happened and break it down.

FEDERER BOWS
I felt all along that this Australian Open would set the tone for Roger Federer in 2008. Had he won the tournament for the fourth time in five years--- as was his clear goal--- he would have been well positioned to celebrate another fantastic year. In 2004, he used his first Australian Open triumph as a springboard to a stellar campaign, and went on to win Wimbledon and the U.S. Open later in that season. In 2006, he secured another Australian Open crown and was in every Grand Slam tournament final, collecting three more major singles titles for the year. And in 2007, he glided through the Australian Open without the loss of a set, posting Wimbledon and U.S. Open victories again later in the year, reaching every major final again.

In each of those three cases--- 2004, 2006, and 2007--- Federer set himself up beautifully by coming through the field “Down Under” at the Australian Open. He took the pressure off for the rest of those years by getting on the Grand Slam board the first chance he had. In 2005, he lost an epic encounter with Marat Safin in five tumultuous sets, then was beaten in the semifinals of the French Open by Rafael Nadal, but recouped admirably to capture the Wimbledon and U.S. Open titles. And yet, by his recent standards, that was not the best of years; Federer, after all, had to settle for a mere two Grand Slam championships!

Be that as it may, what is the significance of his semifinal defeat against Novak Djokovic this year in Melbourne? It may be too early to read the tea leaves on this one, but I will try to put the loss in perspective. Federer had the misfortune to get a stomach virus the week before the tournament, which hindered his preparation. It was not the ideal way to go into a major. But the fact remains that he swept through his first two matches in straight sets before surviving 10-8 in the fifth set against Janko Tipsarevic. After that, he defeated Tomas Berdych and James Blake in straight sets. So the evidence suggested that Federer--- all things considered---was in pretty good shape, and had put his health woes behind him.

He had reached ten consecutive Grand Slam tournament finals, and thus a big string was broken when he was beaten by Djokovic. The guess here is that he will have his work cut out for him to win two majors this year, and might even have to settle for one. Why is that the case? He will be hard pressed to win for the first time at Roland Garros. To be sure, Federer has had a remarkable record at the French Open. The only player to beat him on the red clay at Roland Garros across the last three years is Nadal, who toppled the world No. 1 in the 2005 semifinals, and the 2006 and 2007 finals.

That is a clear demonstration that Federer is a serious threat to win the French Open. And yet, the odds remain against him at that venue on that surface. I would clearly not count him out, but the guess here--- at least for now--- is that he will not secure the crown this year. If that happens, he would then head into Wimbledon looking for his first major of the year. He has won five titles in a row at the All England Club, and would be the clear favorite again this season. He probably will do it again on the grass, but sooner or later a streak of that magnitude has to end. Then, win or lose, he will move on to the U.S. Open in search of a fifth singles title in a row.

Depending on what happens between now and then, he will be the man to beat again in New York, but perhaps only a slight favorite. Last year he became the first man in the “Open Era” to prevail at the U.S. Open four years in a row. So that is another astonishing streak that could be broken this year. My long range guess is that Federer will win either Wimbledon or the U.S. Open again this year, but not both. And if he indeed does not break through in Paris, that would leave him with only one major title for 2008. I reserve the right to change my mind later this year when I have more evidence with which to weigh how Federer is playing. We still need to see how successfully he rebounds from his setback in Australia. But, having said that, I will say for now that I see him only winning one “Big Four” title in 2008.

NOVAK DJOKOVIC AND HIS TRIUMPH
With a little bit of luck, Novak Djokovic would have won his first major without the loss of a set. The 20-year-old Serbian moved through to the final without dropping a set in six matches before losing the first set of the final to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. He then regrouped impressively and took that match in four sets to enter the land of the elite as a Grand Slam tournament champion. That took fortitude against an inspired adversary who was vociferously supported by the crowd.

But the defining moment for Djokovic was his 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 (5) triumph over Federer. They had not met since the U.S. Open final last September, when Federer recorded a straight set win despite being in some difficult situations. Federer won that match in straight sets but only after rescuing himself on numerous occasions. In the opening set, Djokovic was serving at 6-5, 40-0, triple set point. He had five set points in that critical game, but his anxiety was his undoing. Federer kept slicing backhand returns into the wind and making Djokovic generate his own pace. Djokovic cracked, losing his serve, dropping that set in a tie-break.

In the second set, Djokovic led 4-1 and later had two set points with Federer serving at 4-5, but did not convert again. Federer coolly worked his way out of another bind, took the set in another tie-break and came through in the third like a champion. He deserved to win because he played the big points the way they should be played, giving nothing away, daring Djokovic to find a way to beat him. But the feeling here is that both men knew a serious rivalry was brewing. In their previous meeting, Djokovic had ousted Federer in a final set tie-break in the final of Montreal. That was his first win over the world No. 1, and he did it in style.

So a lot was at stake in Melbourne. Djokovic was determined to prove that he could beat Federer on a big occasion after his agonizing loss in New York. He was overwhelmed by the occasion at the U.S. Open. He did not fear Federer as much as he was unnerved by the thought of closing in on a career changing moment. He faltered in New York but in Melbourne he was more mature and able to summon his composure when it mattered. Against Federer, Djokovic turned the tables with some clutch play of his own. In the opening set of his semifinal against the world champion, Djokovic was serving at 3-5, 0-30, second serve. One false move there and the set would have been gone in a hurry. In turn, Federer would have been off and running and perhaps impossible to stop.

So how did Djokovic respond? He swung an excellent slice second serve wide to the Federer forehand, and the Swiss maestro could not handle it. Djokovic then threw in two aces and held on. In an astounding turn of events, he closed out the first set on a brilliant run of four straight games, and swept nine of ten games to open up a 5-1 second set lead. Federer found some of his range again to take two games in a row before Djokovic pocketed the second set. In the third, both men obstinately held serve all the way until the tie-break, but Djokovic had to demonstrate some mettle to get there. At 5-6, he saved two set points on his serve. An unstoppable first serve to the backhand saved the first, and an excellent serve setting up a forehand winner enabled Djokovic to wipe out the second one. In the tie-break, Djokovic rallied from 3-1 down. When he reached match point with Federer serving at 5-6, Djokovic was fully stretched out on his two-hander by a terrific wide serve, but he somehow managed to get it back with very good depth. He then out-rallied Federer from the baseline to seal the verdict 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 (5).

That was a superb piece of business for Djokovic. To be sure, Federer had endured a tough fortnight after being stricken with a stomach virus the week before the event. He had come perilously close to losing in the third round to Tipsarevic, serving to save the match four times, handling the pressure with typical poise. But then Federer had not lost another set on his way to the penultimate round. He seemed have his bearings. He did not play his best tennis against Djokovic, but the Serbian had a lot to do with Federer being off his game. He served awfully well the last two sets. His first serve is now one of the best in the sport. And his returning against Federer was remarkably good. Moreover, his combination of offense and defense from the back of the court is an incredible asset. He beat Federer soundly when they went backhand to backhand, and he held his own off the forehand. Very few men can battle Federer so convincingly from the back court.

In the final, Djokovic was preoccupied with some problems his family was having in the stands, and he did not take control from the baseline in the opening set. Tsonga, meanwhile, was picking up where he had left off against Rafael Nadal in the semifinals. Nadal never quite knew what had hit him in that match. Tsonga—dictating points freely, mixing up his serve skillfully, displaying touch on the drop volley that was nothing short of stupendous---obliterated Nadal 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 in a breathtaking demonstration of his talent--- was making a big move at this tournament.

He had come into the event at No. 38 in the world, but had knocked out No. 9 seed Andy Murray, No. 8 Richard Gasquet, and No. 14 Mikhail Youzhny before routing Nadal, who had not lost a set himself on his way to the semifinals. Tsonga is a rapidly emerging star, an athlete of the highest order, a player who is just beginning to tap into his talent. He was a dangerous opponent for Djokovic, who was coming off such a big win and could not afford to let his guard down. But Djokovic settled down admirably in the second set and gradually took control of the match with the depth, accuracy and penetration of his shots. Tsonga was worn down badly by the middle of the third set. Tsonga found another gear in the fourth and Djokovic grew unsettled by nerves and a slight strain in his hamstring, but the Serbian pulled through in four sets.

I believe Djokovic will be the chief challenger to Federer for the No. 1 world ranking in the year ahead. Nadal will definitely remain in the mix, and I expect him to celebrate another great clay court season. But Djokovic, a semifinalist at both the French Open and Wimbledon last year, is better equipped to deal with Federer from the beginning of the season until the end on all surfaces. It will be fascinating to watch it all play out in 2008. There is an excellent chance that the four majors will be divided three ways this year. And Djokovic will surely make a strong bid to prevent the mighty Federer from finishing No. 1 in the world for the fifth consecutive year.

MARIA SHARAPOVA’S SHINING HOUR
Along with many other close followers of the game, I fully expected Justine Henin to win her second Australian Open, and an eighth Grand Slam championship in the process. She had lost only four times in 2007, and did not lose a match after her semifinal defeat at Wimbledon against Marion Bartoli. But Henin was beaten comprehensively in the quarters by a top of the line Maria Sharapova, who went on to win the tournament without losing a set in seven matches.

I saw Sharapova win her first major at Wimbledon in 2004. At 17, seeded 13th, barely aware of what she was doing, Sharapova cast aside two-time defending champion Serena Williams in the final of that event. Two years later, she took apart Henin methodically in a straight set U.S. Open final. And now she has taken her third major title. But she has never played better than she did in Melbourne.

In the second round, she faced former world No. 1 Lindsay Davenport, who had already captured three tournaments since her return to singles last September. In a scintillating performance, Sharapova crushed Davenport in straight sets. In the quarterfinals, Sharapova took on Henin. Henin did not play badly. She kept searching for ways to hurt Sharapova, tried to take the ball early and dictate, looked for openings whenever she could find them.

But Sharapova played the match of her life. Her serve was devastatingly potent and accurate. She was broken only once. And her mobility--- never a strong suit in the past--- was eye-catching. In the past, Henin had almost always managed to expose that weakness, moving Maria around the court like a chess player, making Sharapova play too many running forehands for her own good. But this time around, Sharapova was incredibly quick off the mark. Her court coverage was outstanding. Her ball striking was only enhanced by her mobility. Sharapova was hitting winners on the dead run with regularity and comfort. In the end, she crushed Henin 6-4, 6-0 like a consummate professional. She was relentlessly aggressive from the baseline, and her forehand held up admirably. It was the kind of match Sharapova must have dreamed of playing.

And yet, there was more work to be done. She beat both Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic--- the two great Serbians--- back to back for the crown, winning both matches in straight sets. In the final, Sharapova wasted a 4-2 lead on a stifling day in the sunshine. She then served at 4-5, 0-30, two points away from dropping that first set. Sharapova remained entirely composed, took that set on a run of three straight games, and came through 7-5, 6-3. Now the only major to elude her is the French Open. The jury is still out on whether or not Sharapova will win that clay court event some day. Clay is her weakest surface, although she was a surprise semifinalist at Roland Garros last year.

But whether or not she does eventually get the job done in Paris, Sharapova will undoubtedly win at least two more majors in her career, and maybe more. I expect her to wage a credible campaign to unseat Henin at No. 1 in the world this year, although she will probably fall short of that goal. Henin is so reliable and so utterly professional that it is hard to imagine her not having another banner year in 2008. But Sharapova will win another big prize this year--- at least as I see it. She will have a good chance to prevail either at Wimbledon or the U.S. Open. A year ago, Sharapova was troubled by a serious shoulder injury. She was beaten 6-1, 6-2 by Serena Williams in the Australian Open final of 2007, and it was apparent that she could not serve at full strength. The problem resurfaced at different stages last year. But now she seems to have put that problem behind her. I have no doubt that this will be the best year yet for Maria Sharapova.

And so the first major of the year is already upon us, and both the men’s and women’s draws look very intriguing to me. Let’s start with the men. Roger Federer is recovering from a stomach virus which hurt his preparation last week, but his draw looks relatively kind. He opens his campaign for a fourth crown in five years at Melbourne with a first round test against Diego Hartfield of Argentina. He should quickly adjust to the new Plexicushion surface, which might be a little slower than he would like. In any event, Federer should get through that one in straight sets. In the second round, he figures to meet either the amazing 35-year-old Fabrice Santoro or the big serving American John Isner, who took a set off Federer last year at the U.S. Open. Federer might drop a set against either player, but no more than that.

I believe the first serious skirmish for Federer could be a potential fourth round meeting against No. 13 seed Tomas Berdych, the big hitter who toppled Federer at the 2004 Olympic Games but has not beaten him since. He gave Federer a rough time in a Davis Cup match a few weeks after the 2007 U.S. Open, taking a set and threatening to push the world No. 1 into a fifth set. He will make Federer work hard if they meet in Melbourne, but Federer would prevail in four tough sets. If Berdych does not make it that far, No. 25 seed Juan Monaco could be the man Federer meets in the fourth round. He too, would not let Federer have an easy time of it, but Federer would prevail in three prolonged sets. In the quarters, Federer could take on either James Blake, Ivan Ljubicic or Fernando Gonzalez. If he plays Blake, Federer will get the job done in straight sets; if he confronts Ljubicic, Federer would prevail in four; if he takes on Gonzalez, the task could be more arduous.

Gonzalez finally beat Federer for the first time in November in a round robin match at Shanghai. That was an important breakthrough for the 2007 Australian Open finalist. When he met Federer in that championship match last January, Gonzalez served for the first set and reached 5-4, 40-15, double set point. He did not close out that crucial game and went down in straight sets. Gonzalez has the single most explosive forehand in the game, and he would be much more dangerous against Federer in a quarterfinal than in a big final. I believe Federer would win that one in four very tight sets.

That would bring the 12 time Grand Slam champion into the penultimate round. In that semifinal, he would probably play either No. 3 seed Novak Djokovic in a repeat of the U.S. Open final, or David Nalbandian, who beat Federer two times in a row last autumn in the final of Madrid and the round of 16 indoors at Paris. Unfortunately, Nalbandian had a problem with his back this past week and was forced to pull out of an exhibition event. If he recovers sufficiently from the injury, Nalbandian would conceivably play Juan Carlos Ferrero in the third round and would then have to play No. 5 seed David Ferrer in a potentially bruising fourth round encounter.

Ferrer was a vastly improved player in 2007. Nalbandian played some of the best tennis of his life to win both Madrid and Paris back to back. Nalbandian-Ferrer has the makings of a five set skirmish, but I would lean toward a five set win for Nalbandian if he is physically sound. Djokovic has his work cut out for him if he wants to earn a quarterfinal appointment with Nalbandian or Ferrer. The No. 3 seed will most likely meet Dmitry Tursunov in the third round, and then would have a round of 16 assignment against either No. 19 seed Lleyton Hewitt or No. 15 Marcos Baghdatis. The guess here is that Hewitt will narrowly move past Baghdatis in five sets, but he will not be able to hold back Djokovic, who will prevail in four sets.

So then we would have the enticing prospect of a Nalbandian-Hewitt round of 16 contest. I would look for Nalbandian to win that match in straight sets, setting up a quarterfinal with Djokovic. That could be the match of the tournament. The baseline exchanges would be fiercely contested, with Nalbandian boasting the superior two-hander and Djokovic holding the edge off the forehand. Djokovic has a better serve. In the end, I like Djokovic in five pendulum swinging sets.

Clearly, Federer will be eager to make a statement against the formidable Djokovic. The world No. 1 lost to Djokovic in a final set tie-break last summer in the final of Montreal before coming through in a straight set U.S. Open final. Djokovic had five set points in the first set of that championship match, and two more set points in the second set, failing to convert on any of them. That was largely a case of nerves for Djokovic, who should be more relaxed in a semifinal setting at Melbourne. But he did not finish 2007 on a strong note. Will he be ready to handle Federer in the first major of the New Year? I have my doubts, but he will make his presence known. Federer will come through by scores of 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 3-6, 6-2.

If Nalbandian manages to get to the semifinals rather than Djokovic, I see a similarly hard fought contest developing because Nalbandian can hold his own with Federer from the baseline. Federer has a vastly superior forehand but Nalbandian’s two-handed backhand is more solid than Federer’s single handed backhand. Nalbandian would give Federer a serious scare but would eventually bow 6-3,4-6,7-5,2-6, 6-4. On to the final would go Federer.

On the opposite half of the draw, Rafael Nadal has a pretty good draw. He may need to deal with countryman Carlos Moya (the No. 16 seed) in the fourth round. Moya kept Nadal on court for nearly four hours in India before losing in a final set tie-break, leaving Nadal terribly compromised physically. Nadal then took only one game from Mikhail Youzhny in the final. In any case, Moya could well bow out before even getting to Nadal for a potential round of 16 skirmish. If Moya does make it that far, Nadal would take care of business this time around in four comfortable sets. That would push Nadal into the quarterfinals, where he would almost inevitably play No. 6 seed Andy Roddick. They met only once last year, with Nadal thrashing Roddick in straight sets on hard courts in the semifinals at Indian Wells.

The last time they had played before that was in the 2004 Davis Cup final, when Nadal came through over Roddick in four sets. Unless the courts are playing faster than expected in Melbourne, the conditions will be in Nadal’s favor. Roddick would need to serve stupendously to stay with Nadal. Even if he does, I still like Nadal’s chances. The Spaniard advances in four sets by grinding Roddick down from the back of the court and peppering Roddick’s backhand all day long. The seedings suggest that he would meet No. 4 seed Nikolay Davydenko in the semifinals, but I don’t see the Russian getting that far. I think there is a good chance that Stanislas Wawrinka (the No. 26 seed) will beat Davydenko in the third round. Then I believe Wawrinka would lose to Youzhny in the round of 16. At the top of that bottom half of the draw, No. 9 seed Andy Murray should end up clashing with No. 8 Richard Gasquet in the round of 16. That could be a beauty, but in the end Murray is my pick to prevail in four sets. Murray would then topple Youzhny in another four set confrontation.

So that would set up a semifinal between Murray and Nadal. A year ago, they fought valiantly against each other through five compelling sets before Nadal came through to win. He was then exhausted and injured when he went down to Gonzalez in the quarterfinals. I believe that Murray will give Nadal another serious run for his money in the semifinals of Melbourne and could conceivably win that match. But, in the end, I see Nadal once more getting the win in five sets.

That would give us the best possible final between the two best players in the world. On the Plexicushion, Nadal’s backcourt game could give Federer serious problems, but he needs to be fresh and fit for such a clash. I am not confident that will be the case. I believe it is much more likely that Nadal will be depleted in some ways and not as energetic as he needs to be. In both Madrid and Paris last fall he was obliterated by Nalbandian after surviving strenuous battles the day before. He could be similarly vulnerable coming into a potential Australian Open final with Federer.

Nadal would be helped, however, by having at least a day off before stepping into the arena with the world No. 1. The conditions in Australia should be a boost for the Spaniard, who would make Federer play a ton of high backhands throughout the contest. Time and again, Nadal will roll that vicious topspin forehand crosscourt up and keep making Federer hit the backhand from uncomfortable positions. Federer always seems reluctant to attack as often as he should when he plays Nadal, and much of the match would be fought out from the back of the court, another plus for Nadal.
In the end, Federer’s serve will be the key, as it was in his five set Wimbledon final round win over Nadal. He will squirm his way out of innumerable break points and eventually overcome Nadal. I see Federer winning his 13th major 4-6,7-6(5),3-6, 7-5, 6-3 in a gripping five set collision.

Now let’s take a close look at the women’s draw. The most exhilarating moment of the first week will undoubtedly be a second round appointment between No, 5 seed Maria Sharapova and the resurgent Lindsay Davenport. Davenport has lost only one match since her comeback last fall. She deserved to be seeded but the tournament will benefit enormously from the fact that she is not. Davenport, who has lost four of five previous meetings with Sharapova but once beat the Russian 6-0,6-0 at Indian Wells, will be primed for this contest. Sharapova—as I see it--- will be nervous and unsettled. Both women will serve big and set up second shot winners repeatedly. But Davenport’s return is better than Sharapova’s and her ground game is marginally superior. She wins in three sets, 7-5,4-6,6-4. The 31-year-old American will reach the quarterfinals and play her heart out against top seeded Justine Henin.

Henin will be hard pressed to contain Davenport in some hotly contested baseline exchanges, but the Belgian will come through in two tight sets. In the semifinals, Henin will confront the winner of a compelling quarterfinal encounter between defending champion Serena Williams and world No. 3 Jelena Jankovic. Serena will have to overcome No. 12 seed Nicole Vaidisova in the round of 16, but Serena will win that contest in straight sets. In the Williams-Jankovic quarterfinal, it will go down to the wire as Jankovic does her best to prolong the rallies, making Serena work inordinately hard. But Serena is sturdier under pressure. She pulls out the big first serve at all of the crucial moments, and wins 6-4,4-6,7-5.

In 2007, Serena Williams and Justine Henin met in the last three majors, clashing each time in the quarterfinals. Henin was too good on each occasion. She will be again this time around. It will be a high quality contest, and Serena will not give up her crown without a spirited fight. But Henin will be tougher on the big points, will be more consistent and durable in the rallies, and will make too many good returns when she gets a look at second serves. Henin wins over Williams 7-6(6),4-6, 6-3 for a place in the final.

On the opposite half of the draw, Venus Williams may be pushed hard in a potential three set collision against No. 31 seed Sania Mirza of India, but Venus will get through that one 4-6,6-4,6-2. Similarly, Venus will be hard pressed to beat No. 24 seed Li Na but once more Williams will win. She prevails 7-5,3-6,6-4 to reach the quarters. In that round, her string runs out. No. 4 seed Ana Ivanovic, now on the verge of being ready to win her first major, will pester Venus time and again with a barrage of balls directed at the Williams forehand. Ivanovic defeats Williams 2-6, 7-5,6-3 to reach the semifinals. She will face No. 6 seed Anna Chakvetadze in the semifinals.

Chakvetadze will topple No. 22 seed Lucia Safarova in the round of 16 after Safarova removes No. 9 seed Daniela Hantuchova. No. 2 seed Svetlana Kuznetsova will defeat Agnes Szavay in the round of 16 and then will meet Chakvetadze in the quarterfinals. Chakvetadze was way too apprehensive when she lost to Kuznetsova in the semifinals of the 2007 US Open but that will not be true on this occasion. She will give the No. 2 seed many problems from the baseline, but Kuznetsova is more versatile and her heavy forehand will be a big reason why she wins 2-6,6-4,7-5 to reach the final. But her tournament will conclude on a disappointing note. Henin will be primed for the big occasion, and deeply determined to win her second Australian Open crown after missing the event last year when she was going through a divorce.

Henin will have her thinking cap on and will pick apart the Russian methodically. Justine Henin will win her 8th major title, casting aside Kuznetsova 6-4,6-3 with a typically composed and professional effort. Kuznetsova pushed Henin to her limits in the recent Sydney final but still fell short and lost in three sets. But the Russian lost to Henin in a straight set final at the U.S. Open last year, and also was beaten by the Belgian in straight sets in the French Open final of 2006. Henin has not lost a match since Wimbledon last year, and she will keep her streak going right through Melbourne, collecting an eighth Grand Slam championship in the process.

Saturday, February 02, 2008

Australian Open Analysis - by Steve Flink

Friday, January 11, 2008

Australian Open Preview - by Steve Flink