The U.S. Open ended a week ago, and I am still trying to digest it all, to put it in perspective in my mind, to write about it with some clarity and vision. To be sure, this was the biggest win in many ways of Roger Federer’s career. He had not won a major in all of 2008, and this was his last chance. He had won only 2 of the 14 events he had played across the season, and those triumphs were in relatively minor events at Estoril on the clay and Halle on the grass. He had not even won a Masters Series event over the course of this year.
On the other hand, Federer had been a consistent force as usual at the majors. He reached the semifinals of the Australian Open in January, and was runner-up to Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. At Wimbledon, he struck back boldly and brilliantly from two sets to love down and a 3-3,0-40 predicament in the third set to force the contest into a thrilling fifth set. Federer was two points away from completing an astounding comeback with Nadal serving at 4-5 in the final set. That match could have turned his year around in a hurry, and it would have been a bruising defeat for Nadal, who had lost an agonizing five set, Centre Court showdown with Federer in the 2007 final.
But once Federer lost that battle on the edge of darkness in arguably the greatest match ever played, he went into a severe tailspin. Across the summer, Gilles Simon upset Federer in his opening round assignment at Toronto. Then Ivo Karlovic ousted Federer in a final set tie-break at Cincinnati after the Swiss maestro won only one match there. And finally, James Blake beat Federer in the quarterfinals of the Olympics in Beijing.
That string of defeats clearly made Federer apprehensive as he approached the Open. In all four of his previous winning campaigns--- from 2004-2007--- he had won at least one hard court tournament over the summer leading up to the big event in New York. And in all of those years he had been the sport’s dominant figure. This time around, circumstances were very different. He had no significant tournament wins to his credit during the year, and his No. 1 world ranking had been taken away over the summer by the redoubtable Nadal. For that wide range of reasons, I believed Federer would not capture a fifth consecutive Open championship.
In the third round of the Open, Federer was stretched to five arduous sets by Igor Andreev, the No. 23 seed from Russia who has one of the bigger forehands in the game and a potent first serve to boot. Andreev won the first set and took Federer into a tie-break in the second. Federer served with a 6-3 lead in that tie-break but lost the next two points on his serve. Andreev was back on serve at 5-6, but his forehand passing shot bounded off the net cord and landed wide. Set to Federer, who eventually came through in a nerve-wracking fifth set.
That was the turning point of the tournament. In the semifinals, Federer stopped No. 3 seed Novak Djokovic in four sets and he halted Andy Murray--- the No. 6 seed--- in a straight set, final round contest. Federer clearly rose to this occasion and played his finest tennis of the season in the last two rounds against quality opposition. He thus garnered another historical achievement of the highest order, becoming the first male or female to win two different Grand Slam events five years in a row. He now has 13 majors and stands only one behind the all-time men’s leader Pete Sampras.
For Nadal, the U.S. Open was a disappointing stretch. He had won eight of his previous ten tournaments--- including Roland Garros, Wimbledon, and the Olympics--- as he headed to New York for the last Grand Slam event of 2008, and Nadal was unmistakably exhausted. He had given so much of himself along the way that he simply could not rouse himself one more time. His intensity was sharply diminished throughout the event. Although he made it to his first semifinal at Flushing Meadows, he was never quite himself. Murray--- who had already upended the surging Juan Martin Del Potro in the quarters--- defeated Nadal for the first time in six career meetings. In that four set duel, Murray played some of the best tennis of his life to prevail.
And so Federer was fortunate not to be facing a man who owned a 12-6 career head-to-head edge over him. Moreover, Nadal is 4-0 against Federer in 2008. Plainly, Federer would have liked his chances better on the hard courts at the Open, and the argument can be made that Nadal remains most vulnerable on faster hard courts. But he did not have what he needed to get to the title round, and Federer cannot be blamed for that. Federer has only a remote chance to overtake Nadal for the year-end No. 1 ranking, but his U.S. Open triumph will undoubtedly carry him into 2009 with a much greater sense of inner conviction and stability.
As for the women, Serena Williams was as worthy a winner as she has ever been. She had lost the Wimbledon final to her sister Venus after fully expecting to claim that crown. She had played top notch tennis over the first half of 2008 on the faster surfaces. And this time around in New York, she threw her entire heart and soul into coming away with a third U.S. Open and ninth career Grand Slam tournament crown. As has often been the case in her past championship runs at majors, Serena was a masterful player in clutch situations.
In her quarterfinal confrontation against Venus Williams under the lights, she saved two set points and then in the second Serena saved eight more to record a dramatic 7-6 (6), 7-6 (7) victory. Venus often had the upper hand in this match. Her ground game was more consistently potent, and she dictated more than her share of fiercely contested backcourt exchanges. But Serena won for three primary reasons: her forehand is a more solid stroke, her second serve is superior, and she plays better defense than Venus across the board.
Serena—fueled by that win--- cast aside an error prone Dinara Safina in a straight set semifinal, and then played another hard fought contest against No. 2 seed Jelena Jankovic in the final. Jankovic was always under duress in the first set before Serena closed it out 6-4. But in the second set, the Serbian exploited her extraordinary ball control and her incomparable defensive skills to build a significant lead. Serena found herself serving at 3-5, 0-40, triple set point down---but the 26-year-old American was outstanding in a tight corner once more. She did not miss a first serve on any of the three set points, and took control of the points emphatically, never giving Jankovic much of an opening.
Williams held on for 4-5 and reached 0-40 with Jankovic serving in the tenth game. Jankovic--- ever the opportunist--- fought her way back and had a set point. Had she held there, had she made Serena play a third set, had she rewarded herself for all her hard effort--- Jankovic might well have gone on to post a three set victory. But she double faulted long, and Williams broke back for 5-5. The last two games contained some of the highest quality tennis of the match, but Serena was too tough when it counted, completing a run of four straight games for a 6-4, 7-5 win. That triumph took Serena back to No. 1 in the world, a status she last held in August of 2003. That is where she belongs, and the hope here is that she will work exceedingly hard to stay up there and keep collecting big prizes in the years ahead.
Federer and Williams have done it again. Can anyone seriously say they did not deserve their high honors?
Tuesday, September 16,
2008
Saturday, August 23,
2008
U.S. Open Preview - by Steve Flink
After a long and
debilitating summer for all of the leading
players, after an absorbing season across
the board, after so many compelling
developments in the world of tennis over the
course of this year, the last Grand Slam
championship of 2008 is upon us. I am
convinced this U.S. Open will be a
particularly captivating fortnight, and the
reasons for that are numerous. This will be
the last chance for Roger Federer to win a
major in 2008. Rafael Nadal can make a big
impression for the first time in New York,
where he has never advanced beyond the
quarterfinals on the fast hard courts. Novak
Djokovic could move one step beyond his
spirited run to the final a year ago and
thus capture his second Grand Slam event of
the year.
Among the women, the windows of possibility
are wide open. Defending champion Justine
Henin has retired. 2006 victor Maria
Sharapova is unable to compete as a nagging
shoulder injury keeps her out of the
tournament. Despite meeting in the Wimbledon
final, Venus and Serena Williams have been
struggling as of late, battling injuries and
not faring well across the summer. So
forecasting the women’s event is an arduous
task.
In the final analysis, I believe Nadal is
going to claim his third Grand Slam
championship of a sparkling year, and his
first in the United States. Among the women,
I look for Dinara Safina--- the sister of
2000 U.S. Open champion Marat Safin--- to
walk away with the top honor.
Let’s look closely at the men’s and women’s
draws.
THE MEN
Nadal opens up against a qualifier. Perhaps
his first serious test could be in the round
of 16 against either No. 14 seed Ivo
Karlovic or No. 22 seed Tomas Berdych.
Karlovic owns one of the most explosive
serves in tennis. The 6’10” Croatian gave
Nadal quite a skirmish at Queen’s Club on
the grass in June, pushing the Spaniard into
a final set tie-break before bowing. Berdych
has an impressive history against Nadal and
has beaten the world No. 1 three times on
hard courts. But Berdych has been an uneven
performer in 2008 and his temperament and
match playing acumen remain problem areas.
Karlovic would be tough to break on the hard
courts. But Nadal will prevail against
either Berdych or Karlovic in three or
possibly four sets to reach the
quarterfinals.
In the last eight, Nadal will probably come
up against James Blake in what would
certainly be an eagerly anticipated battle
under the lights. In 2005, Blake upended
Nadal decisively in four sets at the Open.
In fact, the big hitting American won his
first three clashes against the left-handed
Spaniard. But Nadal struck back forcefully
to beat Blake in hard fought battles earlier
this year at Indian Wells and Miami. Both
were best of three set showdowns. Blake took
a set each time. But Nadal gradually gained
the upper hand with the physicality of his
game, and found a way to get to Blake’s
weaker backhand wing. That will happen again
at the Open in a pulsating encounter. Nadal
wins in four tough sets.
Who will come through to meet Nadal in the
semifinals? That is not an easy question to
answer. David Ferrer could get through to
that round. The No. 4 seed ousted Nadal in
the round of 16 a year ago at night, and
went on to reach the semifinals before
losing to Djokovic. But Ferrer has not
played well since the clay court season. I
don’t think Ferrer will go beyond the round
of 16 this year. In that round, he would
meet the winner of an expected match between
No. 16 seed Gilles Simon and No. 17 Juan
Martin Del Potro. Del Potro is having a
spectacular summer. He has won four
tournaments in a row, including two in a row
on hard courts. The 6’6", 19-year-old from
Argentina will--- in my view--- beat Simon
and then stop Ferrer.
That would put Del Potro in the
quarterfinals. Waiting for him there will be
No. 6 seed Andy Murray. I see Murray setting
up a stirring quarterfinal collision with
Del Potro. That could well be one of the
finest matches of the tournament between the
resourceful and cagey Murray and the surging
Del Potro. It has the makings of a tight,
suspenseful five set match. In the end, I
think Murray will prevail after trailing two
sets to one. Murray would then take on Nadal
in the semifinals.
Murray has never beaten Nadal, but many of
their matches have been ferociously
contested. At Toronto in their most recent
showdown, Nadal won 7-6, 6-3 but it was much
tougher than the score indicates. Murray
realizes he needs to take bold risks against
his determined adversary. He will go for
broke off his forehand, which is Murray’s
make or break stroke. He will flatten out
his two-handed backhand crosscourt, and try
to hurt Nadal with that play. But, in the
end, Nadal will have too much staying power,
and he will get in a very aggressive mode,
thus thwarting Murray by moving inside the
baseline to dictate points whenever possible
with his superb inside-out forehand.
It will be a great contest, but Nadal will
come through with a four set triumph to
reach the final. On the opposite half of the
draw, Roger Federer, in search of a fifth
straight title, has a clear and largely
unthreatening path toward a semifinal
appointment with Djokovic. Federer could
meet his Italian Open conqueror Radek
Stepanek in the third round, and he could
well drop a set in that contest. In the
round of 16, Federer figures to confront No.
13 seed Fernando Verdasco, the left-hander
from Spain who has moved to a new level this
year.
Verdasco will test Federer, blasting away
with his huge left-handed forehand. I
envision that match going four sets, but
Federer’s aggressive, percentage play and
clutch serving will give the Swiss maestro a
four set victory. Nikolay Davydenko, who has
lost to Federer in the semifinals of the
last two U.S. Opens, is seeded fifth, and is
expected to reach the penultimate round once
more. But Davydenko has not been playing
anything like a top five player for the past
three months. I can’t see how he will get to
the semifinals this time around.
Although Frenchman Richard Gasquet is a
wildly unpredictable player and a competitor
who seldom does justice to his flowing
talent, I believe he will nevertheless have
one of his better majors in New York.
Gasquet, the No. 12 seed, assuming he
accounts for Tommy Haas in the opening
round, will topple Davydenko in the round of
16.
That would give Gasquet a chance to meet
Federer in the quarterfinals. He once ousted
the Swiss in 2005 on clay but has never
beaten him since. Gasquet will make this one
a gripping clash and will release his share
of magnificent one-handed, topspin backhand
winners. He will go on some inspired streaks
of shot making against his adversary, but
Federer will weather the storm. Federer will
find himself in a scrape, but he will get
through it in five sets for a place in the
semifinals.
Djokovic, meanwhile, will have a difficult
test in the third round against the rapidly
ascending Marin Cilic, the No. 30 seed.
Djokovic will use his superior backcourt
versatility to win in four sets. In the
round of 16, Djokovic could meet either
Carlos Moya, Safin or No. 15 seed Tommy
Robredo. If Safin is the man who makes it
through, Djokovic will be primed to make
amends for his straight set loss to Safin at
Wimbledon. On the hard courts, Djokovic
would have the upper hand against Safin,
winning in four sets. If he met Moya or
Robredo, Djokovic would be victorious in
straight sets.
Who will take on Djokovic in the quarters?
Possibly Andy Roddick will be his opponent,
but then again it could be No. 11 seed
Fernando Gonzalez. Roddick has his work cut
out for him if he wants to capture a second
U.S. Open, and therefore take his first
major since he came through at Flushing
Meadows in 2003. In the second round, the
26-year-old American might well play Ernests
Gulbis of Latvia. Gulbis was a French Open
quarterfinalist, and he took a set off Nadal
in a hard fought second round match at
Wimbledon.
Gulbis could well have an edge over Roddick
in the baseline rallies, keeping the
American at bay with his variety and
capacity for inventiveness. Roddick, though,
will win this match because of his ability
to release big first serves when he needs
them most. Roddick will win a pair of sets
in tie-breaks, and take the match in four
sets. Roddick and Gonzalez might have a
blockbuster in the round of 16. Roddick will
be hard pressed to contain Gonzalez off the
forehand, and the Chilean will wallop his
share of dazzling winners off that side. But
somehow Roddick will win that match in five
tumultuous sets.
His hopes would then be high if he confronts
Djokovic in the quarterfinals, but a
grim-faced, determined, purposeful Djokovic
will avenge a loss to Roddick earlier this
year by prevailing in straight sets. And
with that win, Djokovic will earn the right
to meet Federer in a rematch of the 2007
Open final. On that occasion, Djokovic
served with a 6-5, 40-0 opening set lead. He
squandered five set points in that game,
lost the set in a tie-break, and then let
two more set points slip from his grasp in
the second set. Federer--- cool and
confident--- came through to win his 12th
major event in straight sets over the
Serbian.
As he heads into this U.S. Open, Federer
does not seem to have much conviction at
all. He has won only 2 of 14 tournaments in
2008. And after rallying gamely from two
sets down to come within two points of a
five set triumph over Nadal in the final of
Wimbledon, Federer has not played
commandingly. He lost his opening round
match in Canada to Simon despite leading 3-1
with a break point for 4-1 in the final set.
He lost for the first time to Ivo Karlovic
in Cincinnati. And then Blake beat him for
the first time in nine career meetings in
the quarterfinals of the Olympic Games.
So how would Federer approach a semifinal
assignment against Djokovic at the Open? It
will be fascinating to find out. After
Djokovic opened the 2008 season by knocking
out the defending champion Federer in
straight sets on his way to securing the
title, they have met only once. In Monte
Carlo, Djokovic was down a set and a break
when he walked off the court, complaining of
dizziness. So a U.S. Open skirmish between
the No. 2 and No. 3 ranked players in the
world will be very revealing. For Federer to
prevail, he would need to lift his first
serve percentage up awfully high, somewhere
around 73%. For Djokovic to emerge
victorious, he would need to out-duel
Federer in crosscourt backhand exchanges,
and exploit his inside-out forehand at every
opportunity.
The outcome of this semifinal contest could
come down to a few key points. I could see
either one of them winning, but will pick
Djokovic in five sets. It could be the match
of the tournament.
Having come off such a taxing encounter
without a day of rest, Djokovic will return
the next day and acquit himself well against
Nadal. It will be one of their typically
high quality battles, much like the
semifinal they staged at the Olympic Games
which Nadal won 6-4, 1-6, 6-4. In the Open
final, Nadal will win the opening set,
Djokovic will retaliate by taking the
second, and the third set will be critical.
Nadal will take that set in a tie-break, and
the come through 6-4 in the fourth set.
THE WOMEN
The top half of the draw is where the most
intriguing developments will take place. No.
4 seed Serena Williams is seemingly on a
collision course for a quarterfinal against
her sister Venus, the No. 7 seed. Venus
could be in for a difficult time in the
round of 16 against No. 9 seed Agnieszka
Radwanska. Radwanska toppled defending
champion Sharapova at the 2007 Open, and has
progressed ever since. She has a reasonably
good chance to beat Venus. If Venus does not
serve exceptionally well and earn her share
of free points, if her explosive yet often
vulnerable forehand does not hold up, she
could well lose this match. But I pick her
to topple Radwanska in three sets.
Serena, too, will have her work cut out for
her before she can even think about a
potential clash with Venus. In the round of
16, she could confront No. 20 seed Nicole
Vaidisova or the perspicacious Agnes Szavay
of Hungary, the No. 13 seed. Serena will not
defeat either of those players with ease,
but she will find a way to win.
Serena fully expected to beat Venus in the
Wimbledon final. She led 4-2 in the first
set but was beaten convincingly in straight
sets as Venus handled the capricious
Wimbledon winds better than she did. This
time around, they will go three sets before
Serena turns the tables on Venus, winning
and thus advancing to the semifinals. Top
seeded Ana Ivanovic, the French Open
champion and Australian Open finalist,
should make it to an expected quarterfinal
meeting with No. 6 seed Safina.
Ivanovic is a big occasion player who loves
the premier stages, but Safina will use her
superior defensive skills to win in straight
sets. And so Safina would then meet Serena
in an enticing semifinal. Serena will
dictate sporadically with her assertive,
attacking style. She will come forward more,
look for openings to hit winners, try to
find ways to shorten points with timely
bursts of power. But Safina will stand up to
the barrage capably, and come from behind to
beat the two-time former Open champion in
three high quality sets.
Meanwhile, No. 2 seed Jelena Jankovic will
be looking to reach her first “Big Four”
final, and she is much better off being on
the bottom half of the draw. Jankovic will
be tested comprehensively by No. 14 seed
Victoria Azarenka in the fourth round.
Jankovic will need to reach back with her
considerable resources to beat a gifted
player, but she will do just that. Jankovic
will come through in three sets. She will
play No. 8 seed Vera Zvonareva in the
quarters, and that could be another tough
match. Jankovic will win that one in two
close sets to reach the semifinals.
In the semifinals, Jankovic will find
herself standing across the net from Olympic
gold medalist Elena Dementieva, the 2004
U.S. Open finalist. They will test each
other to the hilt from the baseline in one
bruising rally after another. Dementieva
will often control those exchanges with her
slightly greater weight of shot and superior
depth. But Jankovic will recover from a set
down to win in three sets. That will enable
her to play a major final at last, and she
will be determined to make the most of it.
Safina, however, will be primed for the
contest. She will win the U.S. Open
Championship with a three set triumph over
the No. 2 seed. Safina has been the best
woman player since the clay court season
commenced in April, so it will be a fitting
conclusion to the Grand Slam season for the
Russian to claim her first major title.
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